Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

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Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise toward formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail, and utility from existing handbooks.

Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins.



THE TECHNIQUES

Getting Started Checklist

Customer Checklist

Issue Redefinition

Chronologies and Timelines

Sorting

Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing

Matrices

Network Analysis

Mind Maps and Concept Maps

Process Maps and Gantt Charts

Structured Brainstorming

Virtual Brainstorming

Nominal Group Technique

Starbursting

Cross-Impact Matrix

Morphological Analysis

Quadrant Crunching

Basic Scenario Analysis

Alternative Futures Analysis

Multiple Scenario Generation

Indicators

Indicators Validator

Simple Hypothesis

Multiple Hypotheses Generator

Quadrant Hypothesis Generation

Diagnostic Reasoning

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Argument Mapping

Deception Detection

Key Assumptions Check

Structured Analogies

Role Playing

Red Hat Analysis

Outside-In Thinking

Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model

Prediction Markets

Premortem Analysis

Structured Self-Critique

What If? Analysis

High Impact/Low Probability Analysis

Devil� �s Advocacy

Red Team Analysis

Delphi Method

Adversarial Collaboration

Structured Debate

Complexity Manager

Decision Matrix

Force Field Analysis

Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

SWOT Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis Review

Anyone involved in any serious forecasting of politics or other social disciplines must have, read, and use this book. Rather than an etherial, academic reflection on why analysis is relevant, or 'what is the role of intelligence analysis', or a mathmatical treatise on Games and Decisions, this is a working reference and practical guide to structured analytical techniques. Although the title specifies "for intelligence analysis", the methodology is applicable to problem sets that are only partially or non-quantifiable, and especially applicable to issues that are ambiguous and where only incomplete information is available.

In many ways, this is the sequel to Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, also by Richard Heuer. Where "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" focused on analytical biases, with a limited discussion of rigorous approaches to intelligence analysis, "Structured Analytic Techniques" approaches similar issues from a more pragmatic direction. As valuable as the discussion of cognative biases is, the comprehensive set of analystical tools in "Structured Analytic Techniques" does more (when applied) to mitigate many of the biases than mere knowledge of their existance, and the analytical techniques will counteract many biases, even when those biases have not been identified.

Of particular interest is the emphasis on analytical teams and group analysis, both the strengths and weaknesses, and methods for maximizing the strengths and mitigating the weaknesses.

The general pattern of the overall methodology (and chapter titles) is -
-Decomposition and Visualization - to break the information into small elements and arrange these elements (often from diverse source) into a rational pattern.
-Idea Generation - brain storming, but rigorous brain storming that encourages a broad range of perspectives and invites the dissenting and minority opinions to be heard.
-Scenarios and Indicators - develop alternate courses for events to unfold in and the signals that a specific course has been taken.
-Hypothesis Generation and Testing - coming up with explainations given the available information, and figuring out things that will confirm or deny the explaination. Not a trivial problem, but one that is often done in a haphazard fashion. The section on deception detection is especially interesting, and is something not normally addressed outside of intelligence circles.
-Assessment of Cause and Effect - although it seems obvious, the common analytical failure of mirror-imaging necessitates a direct check on the most basic aspects of an analysis.
-Challage Analysis - where 'assessment of cause and effect' is something of a sophisticated fact check, the 'challange analysis' phase is a methodical and critical review of the logic and critical premises and assumptions of an analysis.
-Conflict Management - a chapter expressly about leveraging disagreement in analysis. This is an especially valuable chapter as most earlier works have been written with an emphasis on individual analysts rather than groups and teams.
-Decision support - the ultimate purpose of intelligence and many other kinds of analysis. In the political and military realms (in a democratic nation) the purpose of intelligence is to give leadership the information (both current and predictive) to make decisions. Everything done up to this point is irrelevant if it cannot be effectively communicated to the individuals making the decision and bearing the responsibility for that decision.

And finally...
- Evaluation of Structured Analytic Techniques - Here, I think the intent was good, but it would be easy to use this to justify personal peeves. Techniques are only as good as the users and their rigor. If a technique is used sloppily, the technique isn't bad, the user is. Thankfully, this was much more of a "way forward" than specific methodologies.

In a comb binding with a heavy weight cover and tabs, this is meant for the desk of conference table, not to gather dust on a bookshelf. The range of techniques, the approaches to selecting and using the techniques within a structured methodology, and clarity of this book make it a worthwhile investment for professionals in many fields. A little more depth in the practice of some of the techniques might have been a plus, but the framework of every technique and references for more detailed instruction are provided.

This is the definitive work on the subject, and will remain a timely and valuable text for decades.

E. M. Van Court

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